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Financial Crisis Observatory
Know when a bubble is about to turn
Our LPPLS indicators forecast windows of elevated volatility and crash risk during market bubbles, built on Prof. Didier Sornette's research from ETH Zurich.
Risk-free on Basic & Standard monthly plans. Full refund within 15 days.
Continuing the ETH Zurich FCO, whose research is used by 600+ institutions worldwide.
Markets rarely crash without warning
The biggest market crashes are not random "black swans". In fact, many are Dragon Kings: extreme events that grow out of self-reinforcing bubbles. Because they build up through identifiable feedback, the conditions that precede them can be diagnosed in advance. That is exactly what our indicators are built to do, namely to flag the windows of elevated volatility and crash risk inside a bubble, before the turn.
89% success rate
in real-time LPPLS bubble forecasts over five years of live testing, in the ETH Zurich Financial Bubble Experiment.
How the indicators work
FCO is powered by the LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity) model, an advanced mathematical framework for financial forecasting. During a bubble, prices rise faster than exponentially, accompanied by accelerating oscillations that capture rising volatility as the market approaches its tipping point, the critical time tc, at which a regime change becomes most likely.
By reading the interplay between this super-exponential growth and its log-periodic corrections, LPPLS pinpoints the timing and nature of market instabilities, turning the "unforeseeable" into measurable, monitorable risk.
What you get with a subscription
Concrete tools that turn LPPLS science into decisions, so you can see where bubbles are building and when volatility is most likely to spike.
Confidence Indicators
LPPLS signals across multiple time scales, from 2–4 weeks to several years. The Combo Indicator flags when an asset is most likely to change regime, typically peaking just before or at local price peaks, so you can see rising instability before the turn.
Daily Bubble Dashboards
Every day we rank the top 12 positive (overvaluation) and top 12 negative (undervaluation) bubbles across bonds, equities, commodities, currencies and crypto, inducing a live map of where instability is building across markets.
Scenarios & Critical-Time tc
Forecast fits and the probability distribution of the critical time tc, representing the window in which a regime shift is most likely. The Movie Function shows how those probabilities evolve as new data arrives.
Monthly Reports
A big-picture read on growing bubbles and contagion risk across ~450 systemic assets and ~850 single stocks, the same report relied on by 600+ institutions, from sovereign funds to family offices.
Hear it from the source
We continue the legacy of the Financial Crisis Observatory from ETH Zürich, making Prof. D. Sornette's pioneering bubble-detection research available to a broader audience.
Global TED Talk - How we can predict the next financial crisis?
Sornette vs. Taleb - Opposite Approaches to Risk Predictability
Make Money Using Our Platform
Our LPPLS-powered analytics have already helped identify real, actionable trades. Here are concrete examples of how FCO signals translated into profitable outcomes.
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
KHC shows mean-reverting behavior within a $29–$40 range. A convergence of LPPLS signals points to a short-term price rebound around February 4, 2025.
✓ Outcome reviewed: KHC call option trade completed with a 50% return in 6 days.
IBM (International Business Machines)
IBM's stock reached a 10-year high driven by its AI and hybrid cloud strategy. Our FCO shows potential for a short-term correction and longer-term appreciation.
✓ Outcome reviewed: IBM put options trade completed in 5 days.
NL3M (Netherlands Government Bond 3M Yield)
Our FCO shows potential for a short-term change of regime around end of May 2025, with remarkable stability in the distribution of tc values since early March.
✓ Outcome reviewed: The FCO analysis highlighted a regime change as early as March 2025.Research & Insights
Our team publishes in-depth market analyses grounded in quantitative models, identifying macro risks and opportunities before they become consensus.
The Quantum Promise
Quantum computing stocks surged in late 2024 on genuine breakthroughs, then crashed in January 2025 after Nvidia's CEO t…
The Dragon-King Protection Protocol
The DKPP leverages LPPLS-based forecasting to dynamically switch between hedged and unhedged portfolios, outperforming s…
Trump's Tsunami: Roots, Consequences, and What to Expect
The first month of Trump's presidency marked a shift in American governance, challenging the rule of law and reflecting …Our Journey
October 2024
Launch of the Independent FCO Platform
Q1 2025
Introduction of the Dragon King Protocol Indicators
2025
Rollout of Advanced Investment Strategies
2026 - Q1
Deep LPPLS Protocol Implementation
Our Subscriptions
Subscriptions
- Basic: access the monthly reports and 15 pre-selected assets
- Standard: on top of the Basic features, get access to the daily bubble scores calculations and choose an additional 100 assets bubbles
- Professional: get full access to our indicators and assets
Try Us for 15 Days with No Risk!
Prefer to secure the early adopter rate? Reach out and we'll refund your trial payment.
Become a Part of Our Professional Community
Join us in shaping the future of financial risk management by supporting a platform dedicated to excellence, innovation and collaboration.
Funds & institutions: book a walkthrough with our team.